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Svalbard Exercise: Stage 1 - Background

Introduction

The archipelago of Svalbard (formerly Spitsbergen) is roughly halfway between continental Norway and the North Pole. Norway's sovereignty was internationally recognized in the Svalbard treaty in 1920. Whilst Svalbard is sovereign Norwegian territory and Norwegian law generally applies, the 1920 treaty assures equal rights of access and commercial activities to all the 46 signatories. Only Norway and Russia take full advantage of their commercial rights and operate coal mines on the main island, which is also home to various research facilities. The two main settlements are the capital Longyearbyen and Barentsburg, where the island’s Russian and Ukrainian populations live. The main activities on Svalbard are mining, tourism and environmental research (Norway, Poland, China, Italy and India conduct research there).

The Svalbard Treaty regulates the demilitarized and visa-free status of the territory. Article 9 requires Norway to prevent the construction of naval bases and fortifications in the archipelago and the use of the islands for military purposes. The Norwegian military presence is restricted to coast guard assets. Residents may carry registered firearms to ward off polar bears, but loaded weapons are prohibited inside settlement areas.

Recently, Norway and Russia have quarreled over oil exploration rights around Svalbard. The main contention is that Russia believes Svalbard has its own shelf and exploration should be covered by the Treaty. Norway though considers Svalbard part of Norway’s mainland continental shelf and should be governed by the 1958 Continental Shelf Convention. Recently all states in the Arctic region have become increasingly concerned about sovereignty issues and access to potential mineral resources as the ice sheets retreat.

As representatives of your ministries, your role is to assess the crisis in the area under your specific sphere of interest, identify potential gray-zone threats or possible Russian hybrid tactics related to the most recent tensions. You should carefully assess risks and vulnerabilities to such threats. Moreover, discuss resources to either prevent or mitigate threats, including strategies to deter or counter specific Russian tactics. Consider preventive measures that could be applied either in the short or long-term, and their possible consequences. Additionally, you should recommend actions from your sphere that can be part of an integrated/multi domain Norwegian response to Russian provocations in this crisis. Finally, develop a unified strategy and possible countermeasures.

 

 

 

Instructions

Instructions

You are a member of a Norwegian inter-ministerial crisis action team tasked with providing strategic and crisis management analysis and recommendations to Norwegian government leadership. As the Svalbard crisis develops, you will need to carefully weigh the risks involved before recommending courses of action.  You will need to evaluate the situation as it develops, identify threats, identify viable options to mitigate/deter the threats or consequences of Russian actions and consider appropriate responses according to the role you have been assigned. Think about the effects of using these different tools of statecraft to create effective and coherent policy recommendations.

The team consists of representatives of the following sectors:

  • Ministry of Justice and Public Security – Your ministry oversees justice, the police, and domestic intelligence. The main purpose of the ministry is to provide for the maintenance and development of the basic rule of law. An overriding objective is to ensure the security of society and of individual citizens. Its subordinate agencies include the Norwegian Police Service, the Norwegian Correctional Service, the Norwegian Police Security Service, the Norwegian Prosecuting Authority, the Judiciary of Norway, and the Directorate of Immigration. The Ministry of Justice also oversees the administration of justice in Svalbard. According to the Norwegian Total Defense Concept the Ministry of Justice and Public Security has the lead in coordinating an interministerial response in a crisis situation.
  • Ministry of Defense – Your focus is on foreign intelligence and defense against external armed threats as well as hybrid threats short of war. You are asked to assess threats related to Russian hybrid warfare, including military posturing and escalatory activities, “proxy” activities, SOF operations, and military coercion. You will have to consider the security in multiple domains like land, sea, and air and assess the risk of an armed attack and/or potential escalatory results of military actions. The Ministry of Defense has the leading role in the case of an armed attack and wartime.
  • Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Trade and Industry; Ministry of Petroleum & Energy – You are asked to look at how Russian actions and threats are targeting vulnerabilities related to economic coercion and competition. Your focus is on the defense against and response to economic warfare, including economic coercion on a larger scale as a result of developments in Svalbard. Additionally, you should consider how Norwegian economic actions can contribute to overall mitigation of the crisis.  You will also have to consider effects on the operation of industry and research on Svalbard, allies and partners, and the potential impact on the Norwegian economy if the situation escalates.
  • Ministry of Culture; Norwegian Communications Authority – Your main task is to advise on protecting and deterring against threats in Information warfare. For this scenario, this includes cyber operations, cyber-attacks, disinformation and psychological warfare. You will have to assess the threats to cybersecurity, both in terms of maintaining and protecting critical infrastructure, and in protecting sensitive information. In the case of an escalation, this includes protecting intelligence and defending against Russian cyber-attacks.  Are there retaliatory actions Norway should consider in this domain?
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Your main task is to cover the state's international representation, foreign policy development, public and official diplomacy measures, alliance considerations, bilateral affairs, and multilateral relations/affairs. You should analyze policy impacts and concerns of this crisis and recommend necessary diplomatic actions to signal resolve, effect deterrence, counter provocation, reassure allies and partners, and avoid miscalculations and misperceptions. You need to clearly identify Norwegian red lines based on international agreements and legal frameworks, while also avoiding unintentional escalation. You represent the ministry responsible for official communication with Russia but also with Norway’s closest allies, including the Nordic countries and NATO.

Tasks

Tasks:

For the ministry expert groups:

  • Identify potential gray-zone threats/hybrid tactics.
  • Assess risks and vulnerabilities arising from such threats.
  • Develop a risk assessment from the perspective of your ministry (using the risk assessment chart)
  • Discuss actions/capabilities to either prevent or mitigate threats and reduce vulnerabilities.
  • Prepare to present the essence of your individual ministry group observations, analysis and recommendations to the full interministerial crisis committee (i.e., the seminar).

For the interministerial crisis committee:

  • Assess and prioritize the ministerial risk assessments.
  • Identify short- and long-term objectives and a coherent government Course of Action (COA).
  • Assess and prioritize the actions/capabilities suggested by the ministries.
  • Consider measures that could provide longer term protection/mitigation (i.e., you may to take a short-term action to counter a very specific challenge but consider also measures to foster more general resilience).
  • Capture unified interministerial crisis committee recommendations for submission to "cabinet" and prepare as a document. Save in designated share point folder (acceptable document formats: PowerPoint slides, matrices, word document etc.). 

Sources of Tension

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