Svalbard Exercise: Stage 3 - Culmination

Russia media is covering the alleged “anti-Russian pogroms” in Svalbard at length in what seems to be part of a larger disinformation campaign that aims to fuel mistrust and animosity between the two countries and threaten coexistence. Allegations of discrimination of Russians on the island were supported by the sudden appearance of offensive posters outside a pharmacy in Longbyen, the Svalbard capitol. The posters (which were in Norwegian) appeared overnight and called for ethnic segregation between Norwegians and Russians on Svalbard. The origin of the posters and the identity of those who posted them is unknown. Norway is now on high alert and believes that these developments are a sign of malicious intent from Russia. However, the Kremlin has denied those accusations, suggesting instead that the Norwegian allegations are provocations by Norway meant to escalate tensions.

Russian media has also put the governor of Svalbard in the spotlight by releasing a video of him of discussing a plan to expel Russian citizens from the Island. However, the video incriminating the governor proved to be a sophisticated deep-fake.

In the meantime, there are quite alarming developments in the Arctic sea as the Russian Northern Fleet is conducting a 'snap exercise' in the Barents Sea, dangerously close to the Svalbard coastline. Additionally, Norwegian military radar systems have detected more potentially threatening activities, as Russian Tupolev bombers, fighter jets and even an amphibious assault ship have been seen approaching the archipelago in support of the exercise. While all ships enjoy a right of innocent passage through foreign territorial seas (under Article 17 of the UNCLOS), these activities are cause for concern and seen as unprovoked escalation.

A Norwegian anti-war media outlet reports that soldiers belonging to Russian special forces may be training on the Svalbard archipelago, and that military units, under the guise as civilians, have even been involved in reconnaissance missions in mainland Norway. Moscow has dismissed all these concerns and insists that all reports about the presence of special forces in Norway are fake news.

Further aggravating events have been taking place in Northern Scandinavia, as Finland as well as Norway have experienced large-scale disruption of GPS signal, affecting air navigation services. Both Finland and Norway suspect that Russia is behind it, reporting that initial signs of disruption came from the Russian armed forces on the Kola Peninsula. Similarly, the Norwegian undersea surveillance network has suffered from extensive damages as cables in Lofoten-Vesterålen (LoVe) Ocean Observatory have been cut and completely removed. The primary objective of the network is to register any underwater activity such as the passing of submarines, therefore Norway suspects that the ultimate goal of the saboteurs is to blind them both in the water and in the air.

These new events are being reported and put under the microscope for you as advisors. Discuss various countermeasures and possible impacts of those measures on different government sectors and on society. Focus on how to counter Russian tactics, mitigate impacts, avoid unintended escalation, demonstrate resolve, and develop resilience. Consider what types of capabilities and resources are needed to deal with the new threat developments and how external allies or defensive partners should be engaged. Finally, refine draft COAs intended to address, counter and mitigate immediate threats and challenges, deter new ones, demonstrate resolve, and develop resilience. The end goal will be to combine individual ministry reports into a unified committee COA/recommendation for submission to the PM.