Tension and mistrust between Norway and the Russian Federation have increased significantly since 2014. Although Svalbard has remained peaceful, the archipelago has not escaped from broader political problems. Plans by Norway, for example, to drill for oil and move the ice-edge further north are strongly opposed by Russia. The Kremlin has accused Norway of wanting to unilaterally revise international agreements to establish absolute national jurisdiction over the Spitsbergen archipelago and the surrounding 200-mile territorial waters. A Kremlin spokesman claimed that such a course of action would be an “intolerable provocation that would not go unanswered”.
The disagreement came again to a head when the Norwegian government proposed a stringent zero-carbon emission plan for Svalbard, a plan that Moscow claims is contradictory to the Spitsbergen Treaty and would stifle all economic interest by all signatories to that treaty on the archipelago. “We will fight this till the end!” exclaimed the Kremlin spokesman.
Shortly after, the large military cargo ship Sparta-3 arrived unannounced in Barentsburg with 200 construction workers and a large number of shipping containers that Russia claimed contained mining equipment. Russia said that the workers had come to support the construction of a new research facility for the 100 scientists that are already living on the island.
Soon after that, a civil protest rally that alleged Norwegian discrimination against the Russian population living on the island broke out. Norwegian authorities are becoming increasingly convinced that these developments illustrate a clear pattern of Russian malicious intent. Around the same time, a cyber-attack targeting three Norwegian companies operating on Svalbard—Hurtigrutten Svalbard (tourism and travel), LNS Spitsbergen (construction), and Store Norske Spitsbergen Kullkompani (mining)—forcing them to shut down. A ransom note was attached to the virus, demanding the companies to pay in Bitcoins to the anonymous hackers.
As experts working to advise the Norwegian government, your job is to identify the gray-zone threats or Russian hybrid tactics related to the most recent tensions. Discuss primary area of responsibility for countering each threat in the team of experts and draft alternative COAs to counter, deter, and mitigate each threat, including the possible consequences in the short- and long-term. Consider resources, personnel, equipment, and capabilities needed for the alternative measures discussed, how they would be developed/sourced, where those resources should be positioned within Norwegian government/society, and how to prioritize them. Develop a plan for mitigating threats being presented by Russia as well as a plan capable of communicating intent and sending clear deterrence to Russia, while taking deliberate and careful steps to avoid miscalculation and unintended escalation.
Whilst Norway all but ceased commercial coal-mining on the islands, Russia recently acquired additional mining rights from a Norwegian company, Austre Adventfjord AS. Since then there has been increased Russian activity on Svalbard. A large container ship transferred a considerable number of shipping containers onto the island, which the Russians claim contain mining equipment. Without informing the Norwegian authorities, an additional two hundred construction workers have joined the over 100 scientists who have settled in Barentsburg, apparently to support the construction of a new research facility for the Russian Geographic Society´s Expedition Center.
Ten days ago, three Russian 'scientists' were arrested by Norwegian police after they were caught trying to sneak aboard the Norwegian coast guard icebreaker moored in Longyearbyen harbor. The men claimed it was only a prank. Following the arrests, a large group of Russian residents demonstrated outside the local police HQ demanding their compatriots’ release. Scuffles broke out when demonstrators tried to enter the station and a number of individuals were injured. The Russian government condemned “violence inflicted on unarmed Russian citizens by the Norwegian police.”
MCRL SERVICE: LibGuides
LibGuides are a service provided by Marshall Center librarians to compile information resources on selected topics for Marshall Center faculty, staff, students, alumni and other library users. Use of these resources does not reflect the views of or endorsement by the Marshall Center, the US Department of Defense, or the US government, German government or Munich Security Conference. All original content in these compilations is copyrighted, unless specifically noted otherwise. All rights to copyrighted items are reserved.
Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes. With respect to documents available from this server, neither the United States Government nor any of its service members or employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, including the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
